Analysis of Tourist Arrivals and Tourism's GDP Contribution in Nepal: 2009-2023

Abstract

This study examines the evolution of tourism in Nepal from 2009 to 2023, analyzing tourist arrivals, economic contribution, and industry development patterns. Using a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative analysis of tourism statistics with qualitative document analysis, the study investigates the relationship between tourist arrivals and GDP contribution. The Mann-Kendall test is a non-parametric statistical technique is used to identify trends in time-series data. It evaluates whether a variable shows a consistent upward or downward trend over a defined timeframe. The null hypothesis (H0) states that there is no trend in the tourism data of Nepal. The research reveals significant growth in tourism until 2019, followed by severe disruption due to COVID-19, with subsequent recovery patterns emerging post-2021. Findings show tourism's contribution to GDP increased from 1.7% in 2021 to 2.1% in 2023, while tourist arrivals recovered to 963,571 in 2023. The study identifies key challenges including infrastructure limitations, seasonal variations, and recovery obstacles, while highlighting opportunities for sustainable tourism development. These findings have important implications for policy development and tourism management in Nepal and similar developing nations.